Tag:Brad Penny
Posted on: June 5, 2010 8:38 am
Edited on: June 5, 2010 9:27 am
 

Cardinal Pitching Staffs in the La Russa Era

Willie's Bodacious Bonus Blog

It's tempting to do a regular blog entry, especially after the Cards thumped the Brewers 8-0 as Adam Wainwright pitched a two-hitter, Colby Rasmus hit a bomb off lefty Randy Wolf (Colby's first off a lefty this year) and Matt Holliday continues heating up.  But no, I shall resist to take a break and discuss past Cardinal pitching rotations.  Let's take a walk down memory lane.

Cardinal Pitching Staffs in the La Russa Era

I’m a stat fiend – I also am quite partial to nostalgia.  I love baseball because it so often allows me to combine the two.  For example, I have recently been thinking this has been the most effective starting pitching we’ve seen from the Redbirds in quite some time.  The Cards currently lead the league in ERA at 2.97.  Our pitchers are allowing the lowest on-base percentage in the NL as well (.304). 

I decided to look back on the La Russa Era at how effective Cardinal starting pitching has been.  I chose a cutoff of 14 wins – nice and simple.  Sabermetricians will laugh, but I don’t care – I also thought the Cy Young winner should have been Adam Wainwright last year.  Wins DO count for something.

Anyhow, a borderline starting pitcher can get 10-13 wins with some luck, a lot of offense, or both.  But at 14+ wins, I would have to say a pitcher probably has a good idea of what he is doing.  So in the past decade, roughly, how many “effective” starters (14+ wins) have the Cardinals had each season and what place did the team finish in?  I'll also throw out the team's ERA that year and the ERA in relation to the league average, which is ERA+.  100 is the league average.  This year's club is #1 with an ERA+ of 137.  In 2008, we were barely above average with an ERA+ of 102.  Let’s take a closer look:

Year - Quality Starters - Finish - ERA - ERA+
2010 – 3 – 1st place - 2.97 - 137

This year, is mirroring last year closely: Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter are co-aces.  We have an effective ground-ball machine (Jaime Garcia this year instead of Joel Pineiro).  Kyle Lohse is injured/ineffective.  So does that mean Brad Penny is this year's Todd Wellemeyer?  As harsh a comparison that is on Penny's behalf, it's actually pretty accurate, unfortunately.  I was hoping we were getting the nasty Penny that pitched for the Giants at the end of last year, but instead we appear to have a Wellemeyer clone - a very hard throwing, flyball-pitcher prone to giving up home runs.  Maybe during this downtime on the disabled list, Penny is able to soak up more of Dave Duncan's teachings before climbing the mound again.

But all in all, three effective pitchers should be enough to win the division and, again, a three-man rotation is fine for the playoffs in a short or long series, because, seriously, who really wants to see Penny in there against the Dodgers or Phillies?  Uhh...not me.  They can pay Lohse $10 million to cheer from the bench - again.

2009 – 3 – 1st place - 3.66 - 113

You will soon see having at least three effective starters is pretty good and fairly uncommon.  Last season, those three were Joel Pineiro, Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright.  They fueled our 91-win season.  But the 4th and 5th starters were awful (Todd Wellemeyer and Lohse combined to go 13-20).  But we have to remember it was a fickle offense that went cold in the playoffs as we got swept by the Dodgers.

2008 – 1 (2) – 4th place - 4.19 - 102

Lohse won 15 games.  Todd Wellemeyer actually went 13-9 with a very nice 3.71 ERA.  The bullpen cost him a game or two and he could have easily had 15 wins.  The Cards finished 10 games over .500 but a disappointing 4th in the division where the Cubs and Brewers were both strong and the Astros finished a half game ahead of the Redbirds.

2007 – 1 – 3rd place - 4.65 - 95

Waino was 14-10 and that’s all we had to work with.  Kip Wells was 7-17 and Anthony Reyes was 2-14.  I remember this season well (no pun intended) because Kip Wells was stellar in spring training and I bet a buddy Wells would have an ERA under 4.00 at the end of the year.  Um, yeah, I was wrong.

2006 – 2 – 1st place - 4.54 - 98

Chris Carpenter was our only effective starter, going 15-8.  Jason Marquis somehow won 14 games with a hide-your-eyes-bad ERA of 6.02.  Can someone say "run support"???  Mark Mulder, Reyes, and Sidney Ponson were terrible.  If I was a Detroit Tigers fan, I would be throwing myself in front of a train to think that Anthony Reyes won Game One of the World Series that year.  How on Earth did he pull that off?

2005 – 4 (5) – 1st place - 3.49 - 122

The last “scary good” Cardinals team.  Three starters won 16+ games.  Mark Mulder had his only effective season with the Cards, Carp won the Cy Yound award, and Jeff Suppan was at his peak.  Matt Morris was our 5th starter and was good enough with 14 wins.  Marquis somehow went just 13-14 despite having a respectable 4.13 ERA.  He had some tough luck and lack of offense on his behalf, or we would have had our “perfect” starting rotation of 5 effective starters.  In reality, that is what we had.

2004 – 4 – 1st place - 3.75 - 115

What a fun year this was.  We actually had four 15 game winners that season.  ERAs were not especially good, but they didn’t have to be with the MV3 offense and the superb bullpen.  Carpenter was the 5th starter going 15-5 with the best ERA on the team at 3.46, the only starter under 3.50.  This was the closest we had to an AL team in recent memory.

2003 – 1 – 3rd place - 4.60 - 90

Woody Williams enjoyed his 18-9 All Star-caliber year, but that was it.  Brett Tomko somehow won 13 games, despite a 5.28 ERA.  Team ERA was 4.60, 11th in the NL.  Honestly, looking at Williams’ career numbers, I still don’t know what Walt Jocketty saw in him, when he traded for him from the Padres.  He morphed into an ace as soon as he put on the Cardinal red.

2002 – 1 – 1st place - 3.70 - 109

This was the year we lost Darryl Kile.  Matty Mo was still elite going 17-9.  Jason Simontacchi came out of nowhere to go 11-5.  The club had to be creative bringing in Chuck Finley who was good, going 7-4.  I had always wished we had resigned him.

2001 – 3 – 2nd place - 3.93 - 110

Ah, the roid-fueled offenses were still beating up pitching staffs as the Cards 3.93 ERA was 3rd-best in the league.  We were “co-champions” with the Houston Astros.  Morris had his best season ever going 22-8.  The immortal Bud Smith threw a no-hitter going 6-3 and getting some Rookie of the Year votes out of it.  Woody Williams was acquired by Jocketty and coolly went 7-1.

2000 – 3 – 1st place - 4.38 - 107

Kile was 20-9 and was my favorite Cardinal that year.  What a curveball.  Rick Ankiel had the best ERA in the rotation at 3.50.

Other seasons

1999 – Kent Bottenfield was the only bright spot on a terrible pitching staff going 18-7 and making the All Star team.  The bullpen was a horror film.

1998 – The staff “ace” was Kent Mercker, who was only 11-11.  We had the Mark McGwire home run show, but the team, overall, stank.

1997 – Rookie Matt Morris went 12-9 and gave Cardinal fans some hope for the future despite a fourth-place finish.

1996 – Andy Benes was a horse going 18-10 as the Cards made the playoffs in La Russa’s first year as manager.

One of the fascinating things is seeing how the evolution of the starting rotation continually has an impact on the entire roster.  Careers are forged and ruined by who is pegged to toe the rubber.

In 1999, the starting pitching situation was so desperate, the club decided to try middle reliever Kent Bottenfield in the rotation – with smoke and mirrors he won 18 games and made the All Star team.  The next year, the club traded Bottenfield and Adam Kennedy for Jim Edmonds, a borderline Hall of Fame center fielder and major cog in the Cards dominance in the 2000s.

In 2000, rookie Rick Ankiel was the most effective starter the Cardinals had (in terms of shutdown talent).  He led the club in ERA which led to the decision for him to pitch game 1 of the playoffs against Atlanta which led to his famous meltdown of wild pitches on the mound which put him on the road to never again pitching in the majors.  Now he’s a borderline outfielder for the Royals.  Did that one rash decision spell his doom?

In 2002, little Bud Smith was a key piece in the trade that brought Scott Rolen to St. Louis.  His six wins and no-hitter his rookie year were still fresh on the Phillies' minds.  Sadly, he was out of the majors by age 23 as he won just one more game and finished his career with a 7-8 record.  But as with the Edmonds trade, this one fueled the Cards offense for years and gave us ever-sparkling defense at third base in Rolen.

In 2006, the rotation was in shambles, which led to the club picking up a pitcher left for dead, Jeff Weaver.  One could argue his acquisition was the primary reason the Cards won the World Series that year.

It’s also amazing to see how many mediocre pitchers found great success as Cardinals: Bottenfield, Garrett Stephenson, Jeff Suppan, Joel Pineiro, Todd Wellemeyer, Braden Looper, Woody Williams.  The team doesn’t have much success drafting and grooming pitchers (hopefully Shelby Miller will change all that) but they sure know how to take rejects and turn them into winners.

For now, we can enjoy this brilliant rotation knowing it's one of the finest we've seen in a while.

Thanks for reading.



WG



















Posted on: May 21, 2010 3:20 pm
Edited on: May 21, 2010 3:51 pm
 

5/21 - On Second Thought, Let's Nix That

On Second Thought, Let's Nix That

Ok, maybe the Reds aren't ready to be NL Central Division champs just yet. 

As the Birdos were behind early yesterday to the Marlins 2-0, the Reds were pasting the Braves 8-0 in the second inning.  Joey Votto hit an opposite field BOMB for a grand slam that was simply awe-inspiring and the Redlegs were off to the races.  Hey, I will not pretend to hide my jealousy of the Reds' offense.

The Reds' young players are starting to figure this game out and they are simply an exciting ballclub.  Jay Bruce, Drew Stubbs, and Jonny Gomes in the outfield will be downright scary in two years - each guy probably has more actual power than Matt Holliday

Orlando Cabrera and Scott Rolen are more than veteran stopgaps.  They are also teaching the young guys how a major leaguer should do his job day in and day out and Rolen, in particular, is having a revival year so far.

The Reds have some great hurlers.  Rookie Mike Leake is a stud already.  Bronson Arroyo is a poor man's Adam Wainwright and I really mean that as a compliment.  He's lanky, is a great athlete and can beat you in a number of ways.  Arroyo can have a one bad inning and then shut a team down the rest of the way.  Edison Volquez is electric if he can stay healthy and Johnny Cueto is coming along very nicely and is still only 24. 

Cueto's only problem, historically, is he's a flyball pitcher in a homer-friendly home park.  His ERA last year was a mediocre 4.41 but he was very effective on the road (away ERA 3.83, home 5.16).  He was very hard to hit as he only gave up 172 hits in 171 innings.   This year, Cueto has really reigned in those issues with a home ERA of 3.96 (away, still great at 3.38).  He has 40 Ks against 13 walks in 49 innings and he's only given up 5 homers so far, 4 of those, of course, coming at Great America Ballpark.

And you know with Walt Jocketty at the helm, the Reds are going to stop doing what nearly all the teams in the NL Central do: two steps forward, three steps back, repeat forever. 

All that said, let's go back to the Reds' blowout of the Braves that was in process in Atlanta yesterday.  It's was 9-3 still in the bottom of the ninth when the Reds started choking some fielding chances, turning outs into errors. 

With the Reds' lead now trimmed to 9-6 and the bases loaded, somebody named Brooks Conrad hit a fly ball to the wall in left, and outfielder Laynce Nix had a bead on it.  Or so he thought.  Perhaps thinking he had less room than he did, Nix did a little hop in front of the wall as he reached up to make the catch and the ball bounced off his glove and over the wall for a game-winning grand slam for the Braves.  Conrad was already in lament at first base, his hands on his head as if to say "Ohhh so close".  Lament turned to shock and then jubilation as he found out what had actually happened.

If Nix doesn't touch the ball, it's probably just a double.  If he doesn't hop, maybe he catches the ball cleanly.  At any rate, the Braves, shockingly, scored 7 runs in the bottom of the ninth to win 10-9. 

Too bad there probably were only 5,000 or so fans left in the park to see the drama unfold. 

Too bad for the Reds they still have some growing to do.  Hopefully the Cards will figure out how to fix their offensive woes in the meantime. 

At any rate, this is what I really want to know: is it IMPOSSIBLE to give an outfielder an error on a ball he touches that goes off him and over the wall for a home run?  Enlighten me after...

The Hard Nine


1.  Service with a...Scowl
- I think it goes without saying that Chris Carpenter is a warrior.  He is the model starting rotation ace.  He's a hard-working New England-er and ex-hockey player with a bulldog mentality.  You could easily imagine him and Chris Pronger patrolling a blue line together and doing some head-hunting of any forwards that dare enter their end of the ice.

But I wonder if Chris is starting to go off the deep end a bit.  When his stuff was top-shelf, his performance could stay ahead of his insanely competitive intensity.  But at age 35 now, his stuff is falling off ever so slightly which has brought some occasional ineffectiveness which has lead to more screaming by Carpenter on the mound.  Here's to hoping we get Carp some run support.  We don't want him to succumb to those voices in his head.

2.  Hits, Errors, and Other Mysteries of the Universe - Official baseball scoring can be more art than science when it comes to errors.  What I need to know right now (before my brain explodes) is why a misplayed fly ball that ends up over the wall is a home run and not an error?  This ranks right up there with the Theory of Relativity, Nuclear Fission and Ryan Seacrest's sexual ambiguity.

If an outfielder simply stands and does nothing and the ball falls in 1 foot from him, it's a hit and not an error.  Why isn't that hit taken away for "fielder indifference"?  If the ball glances off his glove and falls its an error , UNLESS the outfielder ran a really long way and it becomes a "tough play", you can't assume the out, so they say.  So a dropped ball in that case is a hit

But you ask any outfielder that has played a ball off their glove or head over the wall accidentally for a home run (that would not have been otherwise, of course) they will say its an error !  I did extensive research online for about 5 minutes today and I found no good explanations.  Some said it has to be a home run because the ball is now out of play.  What?  If you drop a foul ball it is out of play, but can still be ruled an error if they say you should have caught it.  So it seems to me that the home run is a special case.  If an outfielder accidentally or even purposefully deflects a fly ball over the fence it's ruled a home run - period.  Someone please explain this to me!

3.  Rolen Right Along - Great interview on SI.com of Scott Rolen.  I'd have to say if guys like Grady Sizemore or Hanley Ramirez have the perfect ballplayer's body, Scott Rolen has the perfect ballplayer's soul.

"In 2004 I played on the best team I've ever played on'' in St. Louis, says Rolen. "We got swept (by Boston) in the World Series. Stars all over the field, and we got pounded. I told my wife after that, 'I'll never win a World Series.' That was the best team I'll ever play on.  A couple years later, we back into the playoffs'' with 83 wins. "We were probably the worst team in the postseason that year. And we win the World Series in a walk'' over Detroit.

I'm just happy that man does have a ring. 

4.  Missing 100% of the Shots You Don't Take - I realized this week that it seems to me the Cardinals aren't taking good, hard rips at 2-0 or 2-1 pitches.  And poof, like magic, another column appears confirming this has been a problem for us.  We're doing fine on 1-0 and 3-1 counts, but the Cards are batting only .244 on 2-0 counts and .231 on 2-1 counts.  This also explains our power outage somewhat as well.  2-0 and 2-1 are your meatball/fastball/Tball home run-eligible offerings and we're batting under .250 on those pitches?  That's just awful, and right now I'm regularly seeing Holliday and Pujols not even swinging at 2-0 pitches.  Why?  If you're not comfortable with a pitch, even if it's a fat strike, you don't swing.  And here's the problem: right now, Albert and Matt aren't comfortable with ANY PITCHES.

5.  Ex-Cards Update - I should wait until after the Cards-Angels game tonight, but I'm fairly confident Joel Piniero will do just fine against us.  Scott Rolen is up to 8 home runs on the year and is on pace to top 20 bombs for the first time since 2006.  Troy Glaus finally came around and he's batting .289 with six homers.  His OBP is a healthy .374.  I miss greasy-haired Chris Perez sometimes.  He's been doing pretty well in Cleveland with a 1.98 ERA, 5 saves and only one homer given up in 13 innings of work.  I was not happy to see Mark DeRosa move on in the off-season but Giants news sources say he's still struggling with his wrist injury from last year.  So maybe we dodged DeBullet.

6.  Blue Cat People are Neat-o - Finally saw Avatar last night.  Not much to say, except, I just don't get excited about movies anymore and this is more proof why.  When a super mega blockbuster movie that garners multiple Academy Award nominations and wins and breaks all kinds of box office income records is merely "good", its time to move on.  The magic is gone.  The effects clearly out-shined the acting and story - it really felt like I was watching a two-hour cut scene in the middle of a Halo video game.  Not that that's a bad thing - it just is what it is.

7.  Put Your Head Between Your Legs and Walk Backwards - Hindsight is 20/20 they say.  I say the Cards should have re-signed Joel Piniero and let Brad Penny tease some other team's fans.  I also say the Cards should have waited to see if Kyle Lohse could repeat his lucky 2008 season before throwing $40 million dollars at him.

8.  Lack of Roids Rage - Runs and home runs are down all over baseball.  The per-game home run rate is at 1993 levels.  I wonder if fans like the "pure" game it is now or miss the "WWF" MLB of the 1995-2005 "juiced" era. 

9.  Mt. Carmel Wildcats Team Update - I help coach my 5-year-old son's T-ball team.  We've worked hard coaching them in the fundamentals of the game and they've come a long way this year.  We had a four-game winning streak end this week.  The other team was better - our best players are in the infield and the kids that like to play with the dirt are generally in the outfield.  As long as the infielders can stop the ball, we do well.  This was not the case this past Tuesday as we got beat 21-9.

I just want to say to other T-ball coaches out there: I understand teaching kids to play 100% hard the entire time.  Play a HARD NINE, right?  This is the right thing to do.  But when you send a runner from first to second every time the fielding team runs to third to tag the runner, that's just a little bit obnoxious.  You're not teaching the kids good base running.  You're sending them to second because the fielders can't cover two bases at the same time - not because the play dictates they should take an extra base.  Besides, you're wining by 10 runs anyway...



WG




 
 
 
 
The views expressed in this blog are solely those of the author and do not reflect the views of CBS Sports or CBSSports.com