Tag:Pirates
Posted on: August 18, 2010 9:11 pm
Edited on: August 18, 2010 9:18 pm
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8/18 - Cardinals Jekyll and Hyde Act Continues

Cardinals Jekyll and Hyde Act Continues


It probably shocks no Cardinal fan that after sweeping the Reds IN CINCINNATI (in a year where the Cards have been pretty bad on the road and extremely good at home) they turn around and embark on their first four-game losing streak of the season that saw Carpenter and Wainwright both get beaten - at HOME. 

On the bright side, they certainly didn't get shelled like has happened on occasion.  The dark side?  Once again a feckless offense is to blame.  As stated in this space recently, the Cardinals have decided to be a team with a handful of super-salaried stars fortified with a whole bunch of cheap fill-ins. 

Can the Cards AFFORD to have a shortstop and second baseman that can actually hit?  Nope. 

Are Jon Jay and Allen Craig legitimate major-leaguers?  They haven't been the past four years but suddenly, this year they are?  That seems fishy. 

One of the biggest concerns many experts had with the Cards when the season began was a lack of depth and a lack of veteran experience and the team has been exposed in both categories.  The only veterans they can afford to pick up are only those that have literally been thrown out with the trash.  Guys like Randy Winn, Aaron Miles and Jeff Suppan.  Super-sub Felipe Lopez could have been very effective as a part time guy, but has been overwhelmed as a starter.

The number of guys on this team that are borderline major leaguers is staggering.  Those I'd put in that category?  Tell you what.  It's easier to state those NOT in that category and we're talking position players (pitchers are a different animal).  Strictly limited to position players, Albert Pujols, Matt Holliday, Yadier Molina, Colby Rasmus, and...that's about it.

The Cards have literally only four everyday major league quality position players.  That's barring injury, the Cards' lineup is only comprised of 50% quality bats (not counting the pitcher, of course).  That's four legit bats out of eight in the lineup for those who are bad at math like me.  And you can almost not count Molina as he is not in for his bat, but his defense.  Certainly, that's been the case this year.

I mean, who is afraid of (deep breath)...Skip Schumaker or Brendan Ryan or Felipe Lopez or Jon Jay or Randy Winn or Nick Stavinoha or Aaron Miles or Allen Craig?  Right.  No one.

At our best, our offensive lineup is going to be 50% effective.  That's an "F" in my book - and probably any book.  And as I said before, this is the path John Mozeliak and the Cards have committed to for the next five+ years, assuming the contract Pujols will get this off-season. 

For comparison sake, in 2004 the Cards had one automatic out in the lineup in Mike Matheny.  This year, we have four or five every night. 

Here's to hoping Jay and Craig morph in players they've never been before.  Here's to hoping David Freese can stay healthy next year. 

Here's to a LOT of hoping for next year.

And now, with a bitter taste in my mouth after a Brewers two-game sweep...

The Hard Nine


1.  When Quality Starts Become "Quality" Losses -
I hope our top three pitchers don't lose their sanity this year.  According to Baseball-Reference.com's team neutral pitching stats this year Chris Carpenter should have 15 wins, Jaime Garcia 13, and (drum roll) Adam Wainwright 19 (instead of the 13, 10 and 17 they currently have).  Each of their last starts were quality starts - and they all took the loss.  Jake Westbrook is fast joining them.  He is only 1-0 in three starts even though he's been plenty good in all of them. 

2.  Worst Contract in Club History - I was feeling nostalgic about the "good old days" when Kyle Lohse was actually a decent pitcher and something occurred to me: he has never been a decent pitcher.  Ever.

In his best season in 2008 he was 15-6 but his team neutral pitching record that year says he should have been just 11-10.  That means he got lucky (everyone is entitled once a decade, right?).  But even without sabermetrics, he had absolutely no track record of success in his career.  Really, 11-10 IS a good year for Lohse, which is sad, of course and a record of 15-6 was a mirage.

He's never - NEVER - allowed fewer hits than innings pitched in a season.  His career batting average allowed against is .283 (and was a slightly better .272 in 2008).  A pitcher that allows a .280 batting average doesn't seem like he would be worth $10 million a year.

And of course, Lohse is not worth it.  Which is why he has the distinction of being the beneficiary of the worst contact in Cardinals history and Mozeliak has the distinction of giving it to him.  Congrats to both.  How fun it will be to see the Cards throw games away by giving the ball to Lohse every fifth day through 2012.  Wait, I forgot - he'll probably be hurt half the time.

Whew.  I was worried.

3.  Get Out Of Jail Free, Derek - I am happy for Derek Lee who has finally been granted his release from Cubs-Purgatory (though he could have left earlier for the Angels).  He was traded to the Braves today and he should probably send the Cards a thank you gift for allowing him to hit four homers in three days off of us, which probably sealed the deal.  But seriously, DLee has always been a real classy guy and I hope he can give the Bravos a jolt and help them hold the NL East lead over the Phillies.  And maybe old friend Troy Glaus will feel more like a real ballplayer moving back over to 3rd base, which might wake up his long-dormant bat.

4.  Year of the Pitcher?  Try Year of the Wierd Injury -
Kendry Morales of the Angels broke his leg running out a walk-off home run.  Super Sophomore Mat Latos of the Padres landed on the DL holding back a sneeze.  2009 Rookie of the Year Chris Coghlan of the Marlins tore up his knee giving a celebratory shaving cream pie in the face to teammate Wes Helms during his post-game interview.  He's out for the year.  And this week, the weirdest and saddest: Francisco Rodriquez (K-Rod) of the Mets injured his finger punching his girlfriend's father in front of other players' family and kids and had season-ending surgery. 

5.  What If The Reds Were Even Better? - The Reds showed their commitment to build a quality pitching staff three years ago which led them to trade Josh Hamilton to the Rangers for talented starter Edison Volquez.  Volquez had a stellar year in 2008 going 17-6 and was an All-Star.  But this year he was suspended 50 games for testing positive for PEDs.  But even beyond him, suddenly, the Reds seem to have plenty of pitching.  Bronson Arroyo, we've talked about before.  He's solid.  Mike Leake is a great young talent with lots of upside.  Jonny Cueto is a tough pitcher (and a pretty good kicker, too).  Homer Bailey just came back from the minors and pitched a great game on Sunday tossing six shutout innings allowing just three hits and no walks. 

Meanwhile, Hamilton has emerged as an AL MVP candidate this year.  He's having an Albert Pujols-type year (.359 average, 26 homers, 80 RBIs).  Drew Stubbs, Jonny Gomes, and Jay Bruce may all develop into everyday outfielders but for now they are all very inconsistent which has stunted Cincy's attack.  If the Reds still had Hamilton, I'd wager they'd be the best team in the NL, period. 

6.  The Cards' Last Hope This Year - The Cardinals are about to embark on an epic road trip and their only hope is to continue the success they found in Cincinnati and since they apparently have lost their mojo at home maybe this is the best scenario.  Can they somehow summon a grinding offense in San Francisco this week?  Can they return the favor in Houston sweep the Astros?  They do have a ton of games left with the Pirates at PNC Park where Pujols is a monster so that bodes well too.  But, if they can't get it done on the road the rest of this season, they will finish second - or worse.

7.  God Bless Us, Everyone -
Christmas has come early for NL batters this year.  Tiny Tim Lincecum of the Giants has been a lot less like Scrooge and been more generous with opponents.  Hopefully that also means the door is finally open for Adam Wainwright to win a Cy Young Award.  His ERA has ballooned to 3.62 and he's almost given up as many hits this year as all of last year (in 80 less innings).  Adam should send him a fruit basket or something.

8.  We're Having Twins - For the postseason!  The Twins are proving me wrong in fending off the Chicago White Sox.  They are first in the AL with a team batting average of .282 and fourth in ERA (3.88).  The only thing that disturbs me about them is Carl Pavano.  He's tied for the league lead in wins (15) and has been sharp all year, but especially recently.  His ERA of 3.27 is fantastic (especially for the AL) and a full run lower than his career ERA of 4.31.  That dude sure gets motivated for his next contact don't he?  At least the Twins are the beneficiaries and his next team will be the chumps who sign him.

9.  Going to Confession - Jonathan Sanchez of the Giants (along with every other baseball "expert" that dissed the Pads) needs to finally confess that the Padres are legit and headed to the postseason.  Sanchez, if you didn't know, said the Giants would sweep the Padres in their most recent series.  But a funny thing happened: the Padres swept THEM and the Giants are now 5 1/2 games out of first place.  The Pads (now with one of my favorites, Ryan Ludwick) will be one of the "underdogs" I'll be rooting for.  But anyone will tell you they are anything but.



WG



Posted on: June 24, 2010 11:14 pm
Edited on: June 26, 2010 10:43 am
 

6/24 - The MLB All-Caveman Team

The MLB All-Caveman Team

Since Adam Wainwright got shelled up in Toronto, I don't get to blog about the Cardinals strong pitching and how they swept the Blue Jays.  And incidentally, the league needs to send Tony Randazzo a little memo reminding him that home plate is only 17 inches wide - not 3 feet as he appeared to give Brandon Morrow.  But I understand his incompetence - he's from Chicago so he grew up watching poorly played baseball.  Also, Randazzo looks like a meathead, which must mean something.  As an ex-baseball player himself, had he made the majors he might have made the MLB All-Caveman Team!

This is a list of some of THN's favorite Neanderthals, both past and present.  Pitchers who screamed battle cries from the mound, hitters who would have looked more comfortable swinging tree trunks at the plate, all with plenty of gnarly hair over their face and chest (and we presume, their back). 

RHP - Pete Vuckovich - Any pitcher that can play a terrifying Yankee slugger in a movie is nothing if not imposing.  He was much scarier as a Brewer than a Cardinal.  That's probably why the Redbirds traded him - not cuddly enough.

LHP - Randy Johnson - After he killed a poor bird in spring training with a 95-mph heater, rumor is he ate it for lunch.

Relief - Rod Beck - One of the most colorful personalities to grace the diamond.  Stories of his exploits in the minor leagues after his major league career was over are legendary with local fans.

OF - John Kruk - It's doubtful there has ever been a worse physical specimen squeezed into tight baseball polyester.  Also makes sensekruk he couldn't stick in San Diego, but was adored in Philadelphia.

OF - Colby Rasmus - A young knuckle-dragger in training, he's a mouth-breather through and through, but some of the deadliest warriors are like that.  They look innocent, you lower your defense and them BOOM - they strike.

OF - Jay Buhner - Bald-headed and crushing 40 homers a year using the most intimidating batting stance in baseball history: he held the bat directly in front of himself as if about to enter a gang fight.  He dared the pitcher to throw a fastball, and then pulling the bat BACK and THEN swinging, would connect, sending the ball into orbit.  Awesome.

SS - Gary Gaetti - For some reason, the vast majority of shortstops throughout history have been excellent athletes, good-looking, more or less stars on their teams.  So it was hard to find a true caveman, but luckily Gaetti logged some time at short, and for a guy that played into the 90s, none were more "old school" than him.

3B - Dave Kingman - One of the most feared sluggers of the 70s and 80s both on and off the field.  The only thing that could make the guy smile was seeing sports writers tortured, but fortunately for them, it was the 20th Century - not the 5th.

2B - Jeff Kent - Few players combined such extremely high talent with amazing ambivalence to what they did for a living, and that kind of attitude toward something 99.9% of the population would consider a dream come true, is quite scary.  Plus he was a jerk.

dunn 1B - Adam Dunn - Dunn is the ultimate barbarian the clan sends to the plate with the game on the line.  The pitcher is too busy watching the way his 6'7" frame is blocking out the sun to focus on throwing the ball properly.

C - Darrell Porter - The MVP of the Cardinals' 1982 World Series victory, he literally looked like Quasimodo at the plate, hunched over, almost crippled - until he unleashed his wicked swing.  The man was nails, cold-blooded when it counted, like any good warrior.

Well that was cathartic.  So let's savagely sink our teeth into...


The Hard Nine


1. Towers of Power - For the first time in a while the Cardinals have three regular outfielders who are a threat to go deep.  With Matt Holliday's recent power surge, each member of our current trio is on pace for 25+ home runs: Colby Rasmus (34), Ryan Ludwick (25) and Holliday (26).  Holliday, until very recently, was on pace for just 15 dingers.  The last time the Cardinals had three outfielders all finish with 25+ homers was 1998 when Ron Gant (26), Ray Lankford (31) and Brian Jordan (25) brought the thunder, which, with just a little help from Mark McGwire's 70 homers, led the NL in big flies.  Too bad our pitching was as bad as our slugging was good that year. CBSsports.com currently shows the Cards' outfield rated 2nd in the majors to the Texas Rangers' thumpers.

In fact, since 1985 the Cardinals have had just five seasons where even TWO outfielders hit 25+ homers in the same season with Jim Edmonds factoring in three of those five seasons.  With Holliday locked up for a very...long...time and Colby Rasmus still pre-arbitration, if we can sign Ludwick to a reasonable multi-year deal, we could be set for a long time, which is fairly critical since we don't have any impact outfielders in the minors at the moment.

2. Not So Lone Ranger -
Speaking of the Rangers, Josh Hamilton was one of the most inspiring stories of the 2008 season.  After a long journey back from substance abuse and finding peace as a born-again Christian, Hamilton had a successful comeback season with the Reds in 2007.  He was then traded to Texas for promising pitcher Edison Volquez.  Hamilton promptly became an All-Star with Texas in 2008 with a season that was highlighted  by an incredible power display in the All-Star Game Home Run Derby that left everyone in awe.  But 2009 was not so kind and while battling injuries and some off-field regression, Hamilton hit only 10 home runs.

Happily, (excluding the Rangers' opponents in the AL West, of course) Hamilton has rebounded with his best season yet, hitting .339 with 17 home runs so far.  But more importantly, he's serious about his new life.  Josh doesn't go out alone.  He stays at home with the family during home game stretches and hangs out with his mentor, Johnny Narron, on the road at all times.  He never has more than $10 on him.  That's humility.  It's a joy to cheer about things greater than baseball - like a changed life.

3. Yadi! Yadi! Ya...Oh Nevermind -
Um yeah, so I've stopped with the Yadi 100-RBI pace updates, if you haven't noticed.  Yadier Molina hasn't simply hit the wall - the wall seems to have snuck up on him and knocked the snot out of him upside the head with a two-by-four.  Get this man a medic!

His average is down to .242, his lowest since 2006 when he batted .216.  And what is really discouraging is how completely disinterested he looks at the plate.  Chris Carpenter is giving a better effort at the dish and that's not saying much.  After giving us batting averages of .275, .304, and .293 the last three seasons, it certainly seemed like Yadi had "figured it out".  I don't think he's regressing, technically.  I just think he's beat up - I've seen him take some nasty pitches off the body this year and those things add up.  I really hope he doesn't make the All-Star team.  He needs a break.

4. He Must REALLY Like Football - I do not come to bury Steve Smith, but to praise him.  We've heard plenty of freak injury stories that have befallen professional athletes over the years.  A lot of the times the accident leads to lies, a cover-up, and finally the embarrassing truth.  The St. Louis Blues' own star defenseman Erik Johnson lost his entire sophomore season to a golf cart knee injury.  Players ride motorcycles without helmets.  They cut themselves with hunting knife birthday presents (yeah, Mike Matheny wasn't an All-Star, but that one STILL hurts us Card fans).

But at least Steve Smith hurt himself actually playing flag football.  He was apologetic, but defiant: "I wish I could take it back," Smith said. "But I am a regular guy outside of football. I mow my grass, too. I can get my finger chopped off fixing my lawnmower. I could roll my ankle playing tag or slip-n-slide with my kids. In hindsight, yeah, I won't do it again. But I was just having fun, playing with some guys."

And yeah, that's a huge loss for Smith, personally, and for the Carolina Panthers organization and the fans, but for a while, how cool was it for those "other guys" to get to play football with a Pro Bowler?  Forget the autograph, wanna play catch, Albert?  Uh, was that your elbow that just popped??

5. Protecting the World's Jewels Since 1930 - Dear World: we get it.  You dislike us evil, greedy, lazy, overweight, spoiled Americans.  That's fine.  But there are still things we really suck at and soccer is one of them.  So if we score a legitimate goal, can you at least feign impartiality and allow the goal to count?  I promise, we are sure not going to win the "World's Cup"...whatever that is.  I'm not sure we even want to win it.  Hygiene and all...

6. Stephen Strasburg's Debut Revisited - I finally took an hour this week to watch most of Stephen Strasburg's debut against the Pirates a couple weeks ago.  Simply put, he has video-game-set-on-cheat-mode stuff.  His high-90s fastball starts right down the middle and then runs to the corner causing lefties to flail and righties to get sawed off, assuming they even make contact.  And this is what's really sick: his change up is 90-mph.  Ninety-miles per hour change up.  What a laugh.  His change up smokes probably 50% of the veteran fastballs in the majors right now.  But the difference between 90 and 99 is lethal.  You swing to hit 99, you won't hit a ball coming in at 90 and vice versa.  And the icing on the cake is his circus breaking ball that drops down an in to lefties - he can throw it for strikes or down out of the zone like a splitter.  Curt Schilling knows a few things about stuff and he says he's never seen anything like what Strasburg can do.  Like I said, I'm really looking forward to this young man setting the single-game strikeout record against us and whadayaknow - the Cards are in D.C. for a four-game set starting August 26th.

7. My Slumping AL Teams -
I don't think any baseball fan over the age of six thought the Tampa Bay Rays were going to lead the AL East wire-to-wire and they can officially be re-classified as underdogs again.  They are just a half game out of third place and both the Yankees and Red Sox are streaking by.  The Twins were solid favorites in the AL Central but the resurgent Tigers are not laying down as they are just 1 1/2 games back and are 7-3 over their last 10 while Minnesota is 4-6.  The Twins main problems?  Like most teams, inconsistent offence is to blame.  But the back end of the rotation has been mediocre, further complicating things - Kevin Slowey (4.58), Scott Baker (4.61) and Nick Blackburn (5.80)?  Eeesh.  Cliff Lee, anyone?
 
8. Step Right Up and Wreck Your Season! - Something has to be done about the All-Star Home Run Derby - namely, dropping it, forevermore.  PLEASE, MLB: NO ONE CARES.  A great majority of ballplayers who have participated in the derby have had bad second halves of the season and/or a down year entirely the next season.  Many articles have been written about it already.  The players are wising up.  Albert seemed terribly gassed the second half of 2009 and had a big power outage.  Jim Edmonds removed all guesswork by getting injured DURING the derby in 2005.  More and more sluggers are bowing out.  I'd rather see Mark McGwire, Sammy Sosa, Rafael Palmeiro, Jim Thome and Barry Bonds have a "Bring Back the Juice!" home run derby promotion.  Now THAT would create some interest.

9. Vogon Poetry or Watching the Cardinals Hit - I told my wife that it was a very, VERY good thing that I didn't watch the Cardinals' 1-0 win over the Blue Jays last night.  Only after the game was over did I realize that Chris Carpenter got the well-earned win when the Cards scored in the top of the NINTH.  Nothing like waiting to the last minute, boys!  I'm sure I would have had to go to drastic measures to keep from spontaneously combusting had I watched the game live - the Cards left 11 men on base.  Last night, at least, the culprits were Colby Rasmus and David Freese (two guys who have been positive contributors for the most part) instead of the usual suspects, Pujols and Holliday.  Of course, the Cards got shutout completely tonight.  Time to gnaw off a leg to maintain my sanity.



WG









Posted on: May 13, 2010 5:04 pm
Edited on: May 14, 2010 4:35 pm
 

Reorganizing the Divisions by Team Salary

Willie's Bodacious Bonus Blog

Reorganizing the Divisions by Team Salary

Every so often I like to think about the aspects of baseball not tied specifically to how teams are playing or how players are doing (especially when the Cards are stinking it up or my favorite players are going 0 for 20). 

Today I pondered: everyone wants parity in baseball, but parity is not based on talent (at least not in this league) - it's based on the almighty dollar.  So if you want true parity, we need to divide the teams by salary.  I have set up the divisions according to team salary and it jumps out pretty quickly how much more interesting baseball would be this way.  Team salary had slightly more weight than geographic location and the cutoff between the "Haves" and "Havenots" is about $90 million.

Honestly, how have die-hard (if they exist) Blue Jay and Oriole fans not killed themselves yet?  You wake up on Opening Day and your team's forums and blogs hot topic is "Will we finish 4th or 5th?".  "You kidding?  We're gonna be awesome this year - I'm saying FOURTH!!"
    
So many casual fans stay away because of such scenarios.  They know the playing surface isn't level and they are correct.  This remedies that problem.  In a more fair division their team's record will be more representative of their team's actual talent.  The Blue Jays could very well win the "Havenots" Central every year.  Their biggest competition is the Reds and Brewers.  That sounds familiar.  Who did they essentially replace in that division?

Oh yes - my Cardinals.  Not to pick on them, but how can you not: they are a big fish in a little pond, relatively.  Put them in the "Haves" Central Division with the Twins, Tigers, White Sox and Astros and they would finish 3rd every year - maybe.

And lets be honest: a "Haves" East Division with the Yankees, Phillies, Mets, Red Sox, and Cubs would be a media circus all unto its own.  The Cubs would continue to stink which is always fun.  The Phillies would get some actual competition.  And we'd at least get some national baseball coverage variety as opposed to seeing Red Sox/Yankees 24/7.

And if the biggest argument is that a weak "Nots" team would meet a powerful "Haves" team in the World Series every year, fine - seed all eight teams against each other and guarantee the best two teams meet for the title.  And put the DH in across the board for all teams and put that argument to rest - finally.

Let's take a look at the new divisions and how the standings would look (keeping everyone's existing records) and who I predict would make the playoffs.

Haves East - Imagine the TV revenue!  Are youse kiddin' me?  Tell Guido: dis division is weh its at! Tawk about braggin' rights - Fuggeddaboudit!  Seriously, let the rich kids beat up on each other.  How is that not ultimately fair for all?  There would be so much drama, even folks that live west of the Mississippi or south of D.C. would pay attention.  The games will average four and half hours, though.  The Yankees will still outspend their rivals here and the Phillies will muscle their way to the wildcard.
Average team payroll in the division: a wallet-busting $158 million.

Yankees        206M    22-11    Champ       
Phillies          142M    20-13    Wildcard
Mets              133M    18-16
Red Sox         162M    18-17
Cubs              147M    15-20

Haves Central - A fine division here.  All have made World Series appearances recently except for the Twins and they could certainly make an appearance at any time now, considering their talent.  The Cards would battle the Tigers all year long and relieve the glorious 2006 World Series (or gory-est, depending on your tastes).  If the Rangers jacked up their payroll, we could put them here and give the Astros a geographic rival.  The Twins are the class of the this division now and for the foreseeable future. 
Average team payroll in the division: a healthy "middle class" $103 million.

Twins           98M     22-12    Champ       
Cardinals     94M     20-14
Tigers          123M   19-15
White Sox    108M   14-20
Astros          92M     12-21

Haves West - Why does a West division always get to have just four teams in it?  Historically, the NL West division title is up for grabs (while the Angles typically dominate the AL West) but the Angels have slid so this title is again, a toss-up.  The Giants pitching will probably carry them to a title.  Boy are the team salaries evenly matched here. 
Average team payroll in the division: a cool $99 million.

Giants           98M       18-14    Champ
Dodgers        95M       17-17
Angels           105M    15-21
Mariners        98M       13-20

Nots East - Can you hear the fans from this division just cheering all over the eastern time zone?  The spending "bullies" are the thrifty Braves, followed closely by the Orioles.  The Rays, though, would probably have 30 wins already if they played in this division so everyone else will have to fight for the wildcard.  The surprising Nationals could be up to the task as the Marlins and Braves, while usually competive, have struggled.  The Orioles' record won't be as bad here, but - yeah - they'll still be bad.
Average team payroll in the division: a modest $69.3 million.

Rays            72M    24-10    Champ       
Nationals    61M    19-15    Wildcard
Marlins        56M    16-18
Braves         84M    16-18
Indians        61M    13-18
Orioles        82M    10-24

Nots Central - Boy, does Toronto feel good about their chances in this division?  Perhaps, but the Reds are on the right track and may give the Jays a run for their money.  The Royals and Pirates can fight head-to-head to see who is the worst in baseball.  See?  Rivalries EVERYWHERE! 
Average team payroll in the division: a bargain at $64.6 million.

Blue Jays    63M    20-16   
Reds            72M    19-15    Champ       
Brewers       81M    15-19
Pirates        35M    14-20
Royals         72M    11-23

Nots West - Quite the low-rent district here, but some compelling baseball would be played.  These teams for the most part all have very similar philosophies about building a baseball team - heavy emphasis on drafting and player development.  The Rockies are the big spenders and more able to keep their talent longer, but this year the low-budget Padres are playing the best. 
Average team payroll in the division: a Blue Light Special of $58 million.

Padres                38M    21-12    Champ
Rangers              55M    19-15
Athletics             52M    18-16
Rockies               84M    16-17
Diamondbacks    61M    14-21

Whether we keep an 8-seed format or the current two league playoff format (Haves vs. Havenots), the Rays meet the Yankees in the World Series and...


lose. 

So, in the end, I spent a few hours on this blog and the Steinbrenners still win in the end. 

Is there no justice?  Oh well.





Posted on: May 13, 2010 1:12 pm
Edited on: May 13, 2010 4:11 pm
 

5/13 - Regression Toward the (That's Just) Mean

Regression Toward the (That's Just) Mean

My, how 1st place predictions, 100-win hopes, and postseason dreams come crashing back to earth. 

While other teams abuse the dredges of the NL Central, the Cards are squeezing sawdust from their bats and kicking balls all over the infield.  The Pirates had to work very hard to hand a series win to the Redbirds last week and so far, the Astros have not been as accommodating.  In nine away games coming into this series, the 'Stros had just one dinger, but our bullpen was the cure for that power outtage as we've given up 3 homers in two days - one in each game to the lovable Lance Berkman.

The plucky Reds sit just one game out of first, and seriously, what self-respecting Cardinal fan is pulling against Scott Rolen and Walt Jocketty over there?  The Cardinals used to struggle with playing well against the better teams yet playing down to their lesser opponents level.  Uh, can we call those the "Golden Years"?  Today's Cards are barely hanging in there against bad teams and against better teams, they are completely shut down. 

Recently, I took exception to one opposing fan saying the Cards choke "every year" they make the playoffs.  Oh, contraire mon frere. 

During the La Russa Era in St. Louis, the Cards have made it to the NLCS SIX TIMES in eight playoff appearances.  That is no fluke.  That is NOT "choking".  But lets be blunt: Pujols' individual greatness has covered many, MANY holes in this team over the past 5 years and I'm afraid his best years are suddenly in the rear-view mirror. 

When Pujols had consistent, supporting talent (The "MV3" is an obvious example), the Cardinals were a juggernaut.  If he is truly entering a new stage where he is merely good, the Cards are much more vulnerable as they appear this year.

I think most Cardinal fans were terrified of the Holliday signing - I know I was.  Historically, we have had much better success acquiring "damaged", "problem", or "under-achieving" players on the cheap who still had a lot of upside as opposed to signing big time free agents - Rolen, Jim Edmonds, Woody Williams, Gregg Jefferies, Mark Whiten are just a few examples of guys who all had career years wearing the Birds on the Bat.

What upside does Holliday bring?  None, really.  He's being paid 40-homer money but he won't even hit 30.  He may not hit 20!  Are you telling me that the Cards could not find a cheap OF to hit 20 home runs?  (Hello, Garret Jones!  Holliday and Jones both have 4 homers so far.  Jones salary: $425,000).  I mean, that plan worked with Ryan Ludwick, and he's still not very expensive for a 25-homer, above-average defensive outfielder with a Silver Slugger award on his resume.

At any rate, I think we all knew we were going to regret the Holliday contract.  That was pretty much assumed (though no one thought it would be THIS SOON).  What I'm really worried about is how crippling Albert Pujols' new contract will be for us.  I do NOT want the Cardinals to become the Mets of the NL Central - a dysfunctional team with mega-paid, aging "superstars" aided by fringe prospects and "four A" players we must rely on to lug an everyday load who end up over their heads. 

And speaking of "four-A" players who are over their head in the bigs, lets take a look at...

The Hard Nine

1.  Ryan's Hope(less?) - Brendan Ryan was the #2 defensive shortstop in the majors last year and if you followed the Cardinals at all, you heard how the team raved about his defense and saw plenty of spectacular plays made by him.  But right now, someone needs to throw a life-preserver onto the field between 2nd and 3rd base because Ryan is drowning this year. 
     The kid had just 8 errors in 105 games at short last year.  This year, he has 7 errors already in just 31 games.  And then there is the little matter of his batting average dropping from .292 to .173.  Moreover, (and this surprises me as I just look at his stats) he actually slugged .400 last year.  His was not a "light" .292.  Not with 19 doubles and 7 triples in only 390 at bats.  Plenty of guys can bat .300 with a very weak .330 slugging percentage - think Luis Castillo or Aaron Miles.  But no, Ryan was one of the most exciting players on the team - period - in 2009. 
     Tony La Russa clearly saw Ryan as our "Yadi" at shortstop - Gold Glove-caliber defense with a .300 bat.  But really, Tony?  After three-quarters of a full season?  Talk about heavy expectations.  But when a mid-market team forces their own hand regarding payroll by diving into free agent waters, they end up being forced to use cheap players who may not be ready for the big-time. 
     The fringe guy drowns in responsibility, the team drowns in salary commitment, the "star" signee drowns in expectations, and the fans drown watching it all.  **GASP** I need some air!

2.  CSPAN is Boring on the Big Screen, too - My wife and I went on an actual date recently and we saw Iron Man 2.  The movie didn't score well with critics, but that's not the point, is it.  I'm an old-school Marvel fanboy.  We love sober Robert Downey and he's beyond perfect in the role of ego- (and ecc) centric magnate Tony Stark.  An early scene in the film with Stark testifying before a congressional committee to refuse handing over the Iron Man suit to the government was dramatic, humorous, terrific - but you "watch" it on CSPAN and I kept wanting to CHANGE THE CHANNEL.

3.  Braunie - Ryan Braun of the Brewers has been on fire all year and he's doing a fairly good Pujols impersonation batting .359 with six homers and 28 RBI.  Andre Ethier of the Dodgers is not putting anyone to sleep in L.A.  The dude is batting .385 with 11 homers and 37 RBI.  37 RBI in 32 games, ya'll.

4.  Good, not Great - While some guys are terrorizing pitchers, others are simply terrible.  While Holliday has been letting us down on a nightly basis, other big-name thumpers are cold as well.  Ryan Howard (.333 OBP, .464 SLG), Mark Teixeira (.203 AVG, .391 SLG) and Prince Fielder (.254 AVG, .385 SLG) are all still trying to figure things out.  Maybe they actually want to get some rest during the All-Star break this year.

5.  Hab-itual Winners - My current NHL Hero, "Halak", and the Montreal Canadiens bounced the reigning Stanley Cup Champion Pittsburgh Penguins from the playoffs last night.  Like their series against the Capitals, the Habs were down 3 games to 2 and won the last two contests, taking each series in the final and seventh game, on the road.  Penguins captain Sidney Crosby said he was "stunned" that he was called for a penalty just 10 seconds into the game.  I thought he was talking about the fact his mustache grew in by the second round of the playoffs instead of in the finals like last year.

6.  Wait, Maybe the Phillies ARE Classless - After the Cards-Phillies series, we found out that the Phillies front office petitioned the official scorer to change Ryan Ludwick's triple off of Jason Werth's glove to an error, which they did.  The Cardinals folks felt that was rather bush-league of the Phillies to do so.
     Now we have the Phillies bullpen coach getting caught with binoculars in the bullpen staring in on the Rockies catcher last night?  The Phillies coaches said they wouldn't be so obvious if they were actually stealing the Rockies catcher's signs.  Maybe he was just bird-watching, eh?  It's too bad they weren't playing the Cardinals at the time - he could have given that excuse and not be lying. 

7.  It's Always Hateful in Philadelphia - I sense a theme here. 
"With an hour to wait before the Flyers continued their quest to rebound from an 0-3 series hole, fans were given a glimpse of the first period of the Penguins-Canadiens. They roared with delight when Montreal took an early 1-0 lead against the team that knocked the Flyers out of the playoffs each of the past two years."
     Can't we all just get along?  Let's break a cheese steak sandwich together and give each other "ups" in the unemployment line.  Come on, guys.

8.  I Told You So, Even Though I Didn't! - I have to point out that when Jason Werth was coming back from major surgery in 2006, I remember admiring his talent when he was with the Dodgers and wishing the Cards had taken a chance on him in 2007.  In 2006 and 2007 we endured a host of flawed outfielders: So Taguchi, Juan Encarnacion, John Rodriquez, Preston Wilson, Chris Duncan, and Rick Ankiel to name a few.  I'm not saying how the fates might have turned out had we signed Werth, but for the club to put hopes in Rick Ankiel, of all people, and not sign a five-tool outfielder on the cheap says something to me.

9.  Call Me the Breeze - Why is THN longer than usual today?  Mostly because the Cardinals are letting me down.  But partly because I found out my office is closing here in Huntsville, Alabama and I'm being laid off in 60 days if I don't move to Utah.  So, if anyone has need of a software support team supervisor, please let me know!  (Unless, you're in Utah...)




WG










 
 
 
 
The views expressed in this blog are solely those of the author and do not reflect the views of CBS Sports or CBSSports.com